The Advertiser’s Planning Horizon for COVID-19
April 07, 2020
What does the collapse of the speculative dot-com bubble from the early 2000s have in common with the housing crisis from 2007 to 2009?
Seraj Bharwani, our Chief Strategy Officer, escaped both unscathed.
If you thought the answer had something to do with their similarities to the Coronavirus, you would also be correct. However, the COVID-19 outbreak has presented an unprecedented shock to supply chains, consumer demand and government policy around the globe.
Recently, Seraj discussed the implications of the outbreak from a high-level, down to very specific actions media professionals and advertisers should consider. In this presentation, he breaks down how the media and consumer behavior have been impacted by the virus. He answers the question “do we need advertising during the pandemic?” and shares his planning horizon in wake of the Coronavirus.
Advertiser’s Planning Horizon
No one can be certain how long this disruption is going to last. However, Seraj believes we can rely on data to paint a better picture. Countries such as China and South Korea who experienced the virus early, found success containing the number of cases by enforcing lockdowns, scaled testing and patient tracking. Using this research, we can establish a planning horizon.
As the chart above indicates, the number of confirmed cases will spike as testing becomes available at scale. Next, the government will encourage consumers to aid the economy via monetary and fiscal stimulus including checks to citizens and business loans, some of which we are already starting to see.
It is estimated that up to 1% of the world’s population could contract the virus and global immunisation may not be feasible until nearly 2021. Seraj asserts “you can see how this scenario is going to play out. If you think this situation is going to be over in 4-6 weeks, that’s too much to expect. We should be planning for the next 6-9 months. That should be your planning horizon”
Watch Seraj’s presentation and flip through the powerpoint deck to understand the impact Coronavirus will have on consumer behavior, the media and advertising. Also, subscribe to the AcuityInsights newsletter for more helpful info and don’t hesitate to contact us with your questions!